Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is preparing a potential Iranian crude oil waiver to prevent the current energy crisis from spiraling into a broader economic emergency, he revealed Thursday. Bessent said the administration is considering temporarily lifting sanctions on approximately 140 million barrels of Iranian crude stranded on tankers, to keep oil prices from escalating further above $100 per barrel and causing more severe economic damage.
The risk of the crisis spiraling has been growing as Iran’s Hormuz blockade removes between 10 and 14 million barrels of daily supply from global markets for close to two weeks. Economic analysts have warned that sustained prices above $100 per barrel could trigger a chain reaction of inflationary pressures, business cost increases, and consumer spending reductions that go well beyond the energy sector.
Bessent confirmed the Iranian crude on tankers, originally destined for Chinese buyers, as the supply resource being prepared to prevent the spiral. A targeted temporary waiver could redirect approximately 140 million barrels to global buyers, providing roughly two weeks of price relief during the US campaign to resolve the Hormuz crisis.
Earlier preparations to prevent the spiral include a Treasury waiver for Russian oil that added approximately 130 million barrels to world supply. An additional unilateral US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release beyond the G7’s 400 million barrel joint commitment is also being prepared, while the administration has firmly ruled out any engagement in financial market instruments.
Experts evaluated the anti-spiral rationale for the Iranian crude waiver carefully. Compliance professionals and national security analysts acknowledged the spiral risk but warned that preventing one spiral — the economic one — by enabling Iranian oil revenues could contribute to a different kind of spiral: escalating military activity and proxy operations funded by Tehran’s oil sale proceeds. Critics argued that preventing economic spiraling is a legitimate goal but should not override careful consideration of the strategic spirals that enabling Iranian oil revenues might trigger.