Iran’s Three-Part Strategy: Survive, Retaliate, Prolong the Conflict

Analysts studying Iran’s behaviour in the three-week-old war with the United States identified what they described as a deliberate and calculated strategy: stay alive as a government, hit back hard enough to keep the pressure on, and drag the conflict out until a negotiated settlement could be secured on favourable terms. Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group outlined this framework on Saturday, noting that despite the loss of several senior leaders, the regime appeared structurally intact and capable of executing its plan.
The strategy was visible in Iran’s actions on Saturday. Rather than seeking de-escalation, Tehran launched ballistic missiles at the UAE, striking near Fujairah’s major oil facilities and suspending loading operations at a globally critical ship-refuelling port. Iran’s military threatened to attack any Gulf energy facility with ties to American businesses and called on Arab governments to expel US forces. Iran’s foreign minister argued that the US military presence in the region had been “inviting trouble rather than deterring it.”
The United States pressed on with its bombing campaign. US planes struck Kharg Island on Friday in what President Trump described in public remarks as a near-total demolition of the facility, and continued additional raids on Saturday. Trump ruled out a deal with Iran for now, saying the terms were not good enough. He called on allied nations — including China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the UK — to send warships to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran had kept closed since the war began on February 28.
The economic pressure that formed the centrepiece of Iran’s strategy appeared to be gaining traction. The Strait of Hormuz carries around 20 percent of global oil and gas daily, and its closure was driving prices toward $120 per barrel. Analysts warned that further destruction of Kharg Island’s export capacity could push prices to $150, a level that would inflict serious damage on the global economy and potentially fuel political discontent in the United States. Trump had previously held back from fully destroying Iran’s oil infrastructure but threatened to reverse course if Tehran did not allow ships to pass.
The human toll of the conflict continued to escalate. Iran had reportedly suffered between 1,400 and 1,800 deaths from sustained bombing. Thirteen Israelis had died, and around 20 people across the Gulf. Lebanon was experiencing a deepening crisis, with over 800 killed and 850,000 displaced from Israeli strikes on Hezbollah. The US embassy in Baghdad was struck by missiles, triggering an evacuation order for all Americans in Iraq. Six US troops died in a military aircraft crash in western Iraq. Trump provided no timeline for ending the war, leaving the world to watch an open-ended conflict with growing alarm.